For handicappers hoping to glean some major Kentucky Derby insight, the trio of grade 1 races on April 9, including the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby,was inconclusive at best.
For starters, two of the three final major preps - the Wood and Santa Anita Derby - were run over a sloppy track. The two winners of those races, Exaggerator (Santa Anita Derb) and Outwork (Wood Memorial), are nice horses and well-deserving of moving on to Churchill Downs for the big race, but it's tough to know exactly how impressive either colt was in victory. Exaggerator, who also won the Delta Jackpot over a sloppy track, likely used the off-going to move forward while turning the tables on Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit, both of whom finished ahead of him in the San Felipe. The lightly-raced outwork was not visually impressive, but was plenty gutsy holding off 81-1 shot Trojan Nation. In short, neither Outwork nor Exaggerator left the logical handicapper with much clue about either's true ability. Unless the skies open up again on the first Saturday in May, it will be difficult to take much more than a flier on either colt.
Then there's Brody's Cause, whose Blue Grass win was the Dale Romans trainee's second grade 1 victory. The other - The Breeders' Cup Futurity - also came at Keeneland. The colt is clearly comfortable at Keeneland, but it should also be noted that he broke his maiden at a mile on the Churchill downs dirt. His ability to close from off the pace fits the profile of many a successful Derby horse, but it will be worth noting the speed figure Brody's Cause earns for winning the Blue Grass. Coming into the race, the son of Giant's Causeway had never recorded a Beyer higher than 84 on fast dirt.
The second-place finisher in the Blue Grass, My Man Sam, ran another big race in just his fourth career start. Trained by Chad Brown, this colt has a big, fluid stride and may just need better racing luck to find the winner's circle. He may not be ready to take on horse's like Nyquist at this point in his career, but My Man Sam is one to include in the exotics on Derby Day at a big price. He'll be rolling late and should appreciate the mile and a quarter.
The field is set for the $1 million Haskell, where Nyquist will be trying to re-stake his claim as the top three-year-old in the country.
On Sunday at Monmouth Park, the featured race is the $300,000 United Nations Stakes. Scheduled to be run at a mile and three-eighths on the turf, the Grade 1 event has drawn a field of ten colts and geldings.
On Sunday at Monmouth Park, the featured race is the $150,000 Pegasus Stakes, a key prep race for the Haskell Invitational (G1). The Grade 3 event will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth and has drawn a field of seven three-year-olds.
With five grade 1 races and a grade 2, the undercard for the June 11 Belmont stakes could be the best single day of racing on the calendar outside of the Breeders’ Cup.
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